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Abbiasov, T (2021) Essays in Urban Economics, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Asgari, S (2016) Modeling construction competitive bidding: An agent-based approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chang, H-H (2002) N-dimensional construction management information system (NDCON): System design and performance modeling through the zero -buffered project management philosophy, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chen, S-M (2002) Intelligent scheduling model and multi-dimensional CM information system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chiara, N (2006) Real option methods for improving economic risk management in infrastructure project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Fitch, G J (2019) System dynamics models for the valuation of real options in infrastructure investments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Gerstenberger, A J (2021) Modeling the likelihood of construction incidents using public data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Teachers College, Columbia University.
Gocmen, F C (2014) Infrastructure scaling and pricing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
He, Y (2006) Earthquake loss and risk estimation of buildings by Monte Carlo simulation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Hogan, D B (1998) Modeling construction cost performance: A comprehensive approach using statistical, artificial neural network and simulation methods, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Kokkaew, N (2010) Risk flexibility analysis in infrastructure project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Li, W (1995) Benefit and cost analysis: Three-dimensional computer models with integrated databases in the management of construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Lu, Z (2018) Feasibility assessment framework for financing public-private partnership infrastructure projects through asset-backed security, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Silver, M L (1981) Craft production: Work and alienation in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Song, X (2013) The application of insurance as a risk management tool for alternative dispute resolution (ADR) implementation in construction disputes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Sturts, C S (2001) Value-bidding: An integrative approach utilizing conjoint analysis and classical bidding theory, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Subsomboon, K (2004) A procurement and material management (PMM) system based on the fully integrated and automated project process (FIAPP), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Sun, W (2023) A self-localized smart hardhat system for construction 4.0, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Tavakolan, M (2011) Development of construction projects scheduling with evolutionary algorithms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Teferra, K (2012) Developments in the theory and applications of the variability response function concept, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Ucbenli, C (2010) A bargaining mechanism with incomplete information and its application in trilateral BOT negotiations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Unsal, H I (2010) Modeling the hold-up problem and absorptive capacity of project networks, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Wang, W (2010) Multivariate stochastic copula-based deterioration models in infrastructure economic risk management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: duration; optimization; bridge; inventory; bridge management; deterioration; infrastructure project; project finance; risk management; cost analysis
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/858632418
- Abstract:
This research explores the current practices in infrastructure Life-Cycle Cost Analysis as well as the Cost Function Modeling in Infrastructure Project Finance. It suggests that more comprehensive and realistic methods are needed to model and simulate the correlated degrading conditions during the infrastructure project life-cycle. This research proposes a new framework in Infrastructure Economic Risk Management, which models infrastructure life term degradation stochastically through the use of empirical models. Two stochastic models are developed: a Hybrid Multivariate Non-Homogeneous Markov Chain model (HMNMC) and a Copula-Based Multivariate Ordered Probit model (CBMOP). The first model, the HMNMC model, is a hybrid model since it combines the state based degradation model with the duration based degradation model using a nonlinear optimization approach to overcome the disadvantages of limited observed data. Furthermore, this model represents the actual infrastructure degradation over a long period of time in a more realistic way than the frequently used homogeneous Markov Chain models. Peculiarly, the HMNMC model uses empirical copulas to capture the correlations among infrastructure subsystems. The second model, CBMOP, improves the established statistical model — Ordered Probit Model to account for the time dependency of the infrastructure degradation. The uniqueness of the second model is the introduction of a new empirical approach to build a Multivariate Ordered Probit Model using Copula. More specifically, it models and correlates the random errors in the linear regression equations by fitting them into an Empirical Copula. This process results in a time dependent and correlated Multivariate Ordered Probit Model. This research then validates a general framework for applications of the developed models to the infrastructure LCCA and BOT Project Finance. Finally, an application of the models to a case example on the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) database is performed and the results are compared. It is envisaged that these research findings would be of great value in future bridge management practice.